Computes Var(rho | a, b) when alpha ~ Gamma(a, b) (shape-rate).
Details
Uses the law of total variance: $$Var(\rho | a, b) = E[Var(\rho | \alpha)] + Var(E[\rho | \alpha])$$
where:
Var(rho | alpha) = 2*alpha / ((1+alpha)^2*(2+alpha)*(3+alpha))E(rho | alpha) = 1/(1+alpha)
Note: Unlike E(rho), Var(rho) != Var(w1) in general, because the conditional variances differ.