Posterior mean count, with admitted n in parentheses. Each denominator is 200; 20 prior/K*/I trajectories are shown.
| prior | K_true | I_target | J=25 | J=50 | J=100 | J=200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vague | 5 | 0.2 | 1.32 (200) | 1.33 (200) | 1.34 (200) | 1.33 (200) |
| Vague | 5 | 0.8 | 1.18 (200) | 1.20 (200) | 1.21 (183) | 1.46 (60) |
| Vague | 10 | 0.2 | 1.32 (200) | 1.33 (200) | 1.33 (200) | 1.34 (200) |
| Vague | 10 | 0.8 | 1.19 (200) | 1.19 (200) | 1.22 (181) | 1.30 (78) |
| DORO-Unif | 5 | 0.2 | 1.65 (200) | 1.66 (200) | 1.66 (200) | 1.65 (200) |
| DORO-Unif | 5 | 0.8 | 1.39 (200) | 1.42 (200) | 1.46 (184) | 1.71 (67) |
| DORO-Unif | 10 | 0.2 | 1.66 (200) | 1.90 (200) | 2.04 (200) | 2.10 (199) |
| DORO-Unif | 10 | 0.8 | 1.38 (200) | 1.57 (199) | 1.78 (181) | 2.09 (57) |
| TSMM | 5 | 0.2 | 1.47 (200) | 1.50 (200) | 1.51 (200) | 1.50 (200) |
| TSMM | 5 | 0.8 | 1.27 (200) | 1.31 (199) | 1.35 (186) | 1.61 (66) |
| TSMM | 10 | 0.2 | 2.15 (200) | 2.97 (200) | 3.41 (200) | 3.57 (196) |
| TSMM | 10 | 0.8 | 1.69 (200) | 2.41 (198) | 3.10 (183) | 3.68 (58) |
| Dual-Anchor | 5 | 0.2 | 1.53 (200) | 1.89 (200) | 2.47 (200) | 3.50 (199) |
| Dual-Anchor | 5 | 0.8 | 1.31 (200) | 1.58 (200) | 2.18 (183) | 4.15 (93) |
| Dual-Anchor | 10 | 0.2 | 2.14 (200) | 2.96 (200) | 3.41 (200) | 3.58 (196) |
| Dual-Anchor | 10 | 0.8 | 1.69 (200) | 2.41 (198) | 3.08 (182) | 3.87 (53) |
| SSI-Weight | 5 | 0.2 | 2.17 (200) | 2.39 (200) | 2.67 (200) | 2.99 (191) |
| SSI-Weight | 5 | 0.8 | 1.73 (200) | 1.95 (199) | 2.31 (173) | 3.48 (30) |
| SSI-Weight | 10 | 0.2 | 2.16 (200) | 2.38 (200) | 2.67 (200) | 2.99 (196) |
| SSI-Weight | 10 | 0.8 | 1.74 (200) | 1.93 (200) | 2.34 (178) | 2.97 (45) |